Let's Look at the Numbers

Spectator

By Stephen Tuttle | July 6, 2024

Some themes have now emerged from the 2024 presidential campaign, and much of it has been consistently inaccurate.

For example, Republicans tell us Joe Biden has rigged the judicial system, weaponized the government, ruined the economy, allowed crime to run rampant over American cities, and that we are no longer respected in the rest of the world. Quite a list, but, fortunately, these are mostly areas in which significant data is available. Let’s look at the numbers.

We’ll start with the judicial system and Trump’s convictions in New York criminal and civil trials. As we know, he was convicted of 34 felony counts in the criminal trial and was forced to pay a woman millions after having been found to have sexually abused her many years ago.

The accusation New York prosecutor Alvin Bragg is a Democrat partisan who was out “to get” Trump is fair enough. Bragg is, in fact, a partisan who ran bragging he would prosecute Trump. But 23 regular New York citizens on the grand jury decided crimes had been committed, and the 12 person trial jury determined Trump was guilty of those crimes. The federal government, at any level, was not involved. Nor were they involved in the E. Jean Carroll sexual abuse case, a civil matter brought by Carroll and not the government.

It isn’t Biden's fault Trump is a convicted criminal and a sex abuser.

The economy is not exactly a trainwreck or even a train delay. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), inflation is 3.27 percent, down from 4.7 percent last year and way down from 8.0 percent in 2022. The Consumer Price Index is still high. Inflation needs more downward movement but is hardly out of control.

Job growth continues to outstrip projections, and, according to the BLS, non-farm employment of 156.9 million Americans has blown past pre-pandemic numbers by more than four million jobs. Unemployment is a tick under 4 percent, not a number that especially troubles economists.

According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, real gross domestic product (GDP) rose 1.4 percent in the first quarter of 2024 after a robust gain of 3.4 percent in the last quarter of 2023. GDP has grown in each quarter since the start of 2021. Additionally, personal income increased at a rate of about 6 percent annually.

All of which points to a steadily and consistently improving economy, not a disaster.

Crime is not out of control, either. According to the FBI, the murder rate dropped 10 percent in 2023, and there were also reductions in assault, gun crimes, and burglary, though auto thefts increased. Similar data was reported by the Council on Criminal Justice.

New York City, which some political candidates like to claim is a cesspool of dangerous crime, actually had 416 fewer murders in 2023 than in 2022, the fourth lowest number in the last three decades. Neither New York City nor New York state rank near the top of violent crime statistics, as those honors go elsewhere and pretty much ignore partisanship.

The states with the highest violent crime rates (murder, non-negligent manslaughter, forcible rape, and robbery) were New Mexico, Arkansas, and Louisiana, the first controlled by Democrats and the next two by Republicans. Those with the lowest violent crime rates were New Hampshire (R), Maine (D), and Idaho (R).

Crime and crime prevention are not partisan issues.

One supposes how the rest of the world views us can be subjective but, fortunately, Pew Research Center has done significant polling on the subject. In 2020, they surveyed 36,923 respondents in 33 countries, asking if they had confidence that Donald Trump would “do the right thing.” A stunning 64 percent said they had “no confidence” Trump would do the right thing.

In similar research in 2024, 28 percent of those surveyed in 34 countries said they had “confidence” in Trump, while 43 percent expressed “confidence” in Biden. That confidence gap balloons to 40 points in Germany, the Netherlands, Sweden, Poland, and elsewhere. So our international reputation seems to be surviving, at least in terms of one candidate versus the other.

Nor, as some have suggested, have we suddenly become submissive to China or Russia or anybody else. If you liked the Trump tariffs, then you have to like the Biden tariffs because he left nearly all in place. And Biden’s policy of trying to arm Ukraine to the teeth doesn’t seem like being subservient to Russia, with whom they are at war.

As for “weaponizing” the government, what do the critics think the Department of Justice actually does? They are, and always have been, the government’s weapon.

There are legitimate criticisms of President Biden, but they don’t include a failed economy, rampant crime, or loss of the international respect they think Trump had. His opponents just made that up.