The Shoulder Season Slump

How we locals can support shops, restaurants, and more this winter

By Ellen Miller | Jan. 18, 2025

The weather outside can be frightful, and without the twinkling lights of the holidays, downtowns in northern Michigan can see business slow this time of year as locals snuggle up at home.

All the presents have been bought, the family dinners have been eaten, and the gift cards have (mostly) been used up. Add to that the tourists and snowbirds seeking warmer climes, and local businesses can see a major drop in the first few months of the year.

And yet, there’s so much to enjoy! When the roads are clear, those willing to brave the frigid temperatures can find a cozy latte, pop into shops and stock up goodies to get through the winter months, and hit the most popular restaurants without having to compete for a reservation. Might the shoulder season actually be a delightful time of year to be Up North?

From Heydays to Holidays to…Today

Many northern Michigan retailers and food and beverage hotspots see their busiest seasons between Memorial Day and Labor Day, with an extra boost coming now that NoMi is known as a fall color haven.

“August is the best day because of Street Sale if you go dollar wise, but the best month is usually July,” says Bill Golden of Golden Shoes, located in downtown Traverse City. “Really the week of the Cherry Festival is one of the best weeks of the year. People who say people don’t come downtown, well that’s not true. It’s a very good month, and it starts with Cherry Fest.”

Golden points to October as the peak sales month during color season. The holidays are the next big shopping season for local stores, and November’s Shop Your Community Day is particularly busy. “People really back that; they come down and shop to support the organization they want to see donations go towards,” Golden says.

The Michigan Retailers Association (MRA) keeps tabs on retail performance across the state, providing a monthly rating on their 100-point Retail Index. The MRA considers values above 50 to “generally indicate positive activity, the higher the number, the stronger the activity.”

For example, around the 2024 holidays, MRA recorded indices of 54.5 in October and 54.1 in November. (December 2024 data is not yet available.) In contrast, in January 2024, they reported “sales performed moderately, landing at 48.0.” February 2024 also hit a 48.0 rating. March dropped to 44.3, and April to 42.5
“Business in the new year definitely slows down,” says Golden. “However, you’re also running your sales. The hope is you get some people in as you’re getting rid of your fall and winter product, and then about the second or third week of February, your spring product is arriving as people are getting ready to travel.”

For Golden Shoes, February is the slowest month, and things start to pick back up in March as people are traveling. And during that time, weather really matters.

“We need real winters because a lot of people depend on winter,” says Golden, pointing to local ski resorts as one example. “We need the seasons.”

Golden says the real challenge can be finding the balance of bringing in new merchandise when sales are slower. Even though sales might dip, “those months are still very important,” says Golden, who emphasizes that Golden Shoes doesn’t lay anybody off in the winter. Sales help get people in the door, as well as turn over merchandise that is going out of season. “It’s not like wine—it doesn’t get better with age!” he jokes.

Year-Round Options

Even when the shoppers aren’t out in force, the retailers are still there. While locals might fear that they have fewer options in the shoulder season to explore, in many cases that simply isn’t true.

According to Harry Burkholder, Executive Director of Traverse City’s Downtown Development Authority (DDA), Traverse City boasts a vibrant downtown open year-round.

“Ninety-five percent of our first-floor retail and restaurant businesses are locally owned,” says Burkholder. “That’s a really high percent, and it makes us unique. The urban fabric of downtown—it’s walkable, accessible, and adjacent to the river and lake, makes us a destination.”

Burkholder emphasizes that downtown Traverse City feels even more open and ready for business without the construction projects that made getting around this past summer (and the summer to come) more complicated.

“Whether you’re shopping for apparel, things for the kitchen or living room or looking for next summer’s bathing suit, seeking places to eat or have a beverage, it’s all downtown. There’s something for everyone,” says Burkholder.

It’s a similar story in Petoskey. These days, very few stores in Petoskey close up shop over the winter—“maybe one T-shirt shop,” estimates Amy Tweeten, the downtown manager for Downtown Petoskey.

“That’s changed over the years,” Tweeten explains. “More of our storefront businesses are services, for example kitchen, bath, and interior designer type businesses. It has retail elements, but most work is done out the back door. It helps us because it allows us to have more active storefront spaces. Many people see that as ‘We’re losing retail,’ but at least those storefronts are occupied year-round.”

She adds that in terms of events, Petoskey tries to keep things creative to get people out and exploring during the off-season.

“We’ll try just about anything to try to get people to rotate and get in and out of as many places as we can,” Tweeten says. Past event iterations have included scavenger hunts and progressive dinners, ensuring that locals hit more than one business on their trip downtown.

Population Dips and Growth

Part of the challenge for communities like Traverse City and Petoskey to keep retail and restaurant visits robust in the off-season is that the population shrinks in cold weather. Mild winters have diminished winter snow sport visits, and on top of that, many snowbird residents, a growing segment of the retired populace Up North, escape south for the winter. By mid-January, only the hearty, year-round locals are still around.

“Historically we were a resort community, with summer people who came back year after year,” says Tweeten. “City-wide, we are becoming more of a second-home destination, and we also have a lot of vacation rentals, with people coming and staying for the weekend, but we are definitely a seasonal population; probably sometime after the holidays a whole lot of people go south.”

On the flip side, population growth in Traverse City has meant more people are becoming year-round residents.

“Certainly there’s a pipeline of people that do move to the warmer temps in the winter, but I would still say there’s a strong contingent of people who live here year-round,” says Burkholder. “As the Grand Traverse region continues to grow, we’re also the hub of a lot of activities, drawing in locals from not only Traverse City but the greater region as well.”

Supporting Local

Even if you’re one of the aforementioned snowbirds, one easy way to support local businesses is by purchasing downtown dollars, says Tweeten. Petoskey’s downtown dollars can be found online on the Petoskey downtown website, or purchased through the downtown parking office and then redeemed later at local downtown businesses. Traverse City also offers a similar program.

“The best way to support businesses is to support them,” Tweeten says. “Going out to local restaurants, buying locally, and attending events where businesses open doors and offer refreshments. For trick or treating, there were 800-1,000 kids downtown, and every store was handing out candy. You don’t get that from Amazon! Small businesses are the ones who are donating to silent auctions and supporting nonprofits, too. Appreciating and purchasing from local stores is what will keep them afloat.”

Fun reasons to head downtown didn’t end with the holidays, so if you need an excuse to hit the stores or restaurants, start here. Petoskey’s upcoming Winter Wonderland Weekend is just around the corner Feb. 14-16, which corresponds with their winter carnival.

“We’ll have ice carving in the park and businesses will have ice sculptures,” says Tweeten. While the committee is just starting to work on the details of the event, Tweeten confirms that the event’s alignment with Valentine’s Day this year means there will definitely be chocolate involved.

In Traverse City, Restaurant Week is also coming up Feb. 23-March 1. “Restaurant Week is a way to highlight our culinary opportunities downtown and bring people in. It certainly brings out a lot of locals within Traverse City, and from the region, to our downtown restaurants,” says Burkholder.

While the DDA is no longer directly involved in TCRW, Burkholder also points to the Traverse City Comedy Fest—which has moved from its former slot in February out to April 10-12—as a great opportunity for locals to see national talent while supporting local businesses.